DISCUSSION

by Dave Thomas : nmsrdaveATswcp.com (Help fight SPAM!  Please replace the AT with an @ )

In brief, Faulstich claims to have calculated exact astronomical-based dates for 13 key Biblical events. When he calculates the differences in weeks between all 13 dates (13 things 2 at a time = 78 pairs), and examines the digits in his collection of 78 numbers, he finds a whopping 35% are 7's (one would expect 10% for random distributions).

Readers can study the extensive claims made by Faulstich and his colleagues at

http://www.ncn.net/~chri and http://www.mashiach6000.org.

Faulstich claims that he and his colleagues have achieved "A new scientific breakthrough in religious studies," and that his group's work "Shows that the chronology in the Bible is scientifically provable through the exact science of astrophysics. This has the potential to 'prove' that G-d exists, and that the One G-d of the universe is the One G-d of the Bible."

You'll find many hard-to-read "Mileage Charts" (matrices of the differences in weeks between key dates) on Faulstich's web pages. Here is a simplified, easy-to-read chart that shows his basic "7's Matrix." This is the basis of Faustich's claim that he has at last Proved the Existence and Identity of G-d.

Here's how to read the table. First, an example; consider dates #7 (Jan. 22 1421 BC, Adamic Day # 942263) and #11 (Sept. 6, 70 AD, Adamic day#1486702). The number of days between these two dates is 1486702 - 942263 = 544439; dividing this by 7, we obtain the number of weeks, 77777. Consulting the table's 4th column (ID#), find row #11; go across till the bottom row reads #7; their intersection is the difference in weeks (77,777).

EVENT	DAY	ADAMIC	ID	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Burning Bush Ex. 3:1-4:17	Oct. 9, 1462 BC	927548	1
Exodus Passover Ex 12:1-28	Mar. 26, 1461 BC	927717	2	24
Ten Commandments Ex 19-24	May 28, 1461 BC	927779	3	33	9
Golden Calf Ex. 32	July 16, 1461 BC	927828	4	40	16	7
Tabernacle Dedication Ex. 40-Lev. 8FF	Apr. 1, 1461 BC	928087	5	77	53	44	37
Aaron died Nu. 33:38	July 29, 1422 BC	942087	6	2077	2053	2044	2037	2000
Law read DT. 1:1-5:1	Jan. 22, 1421 BC	942263	7	2102	2078	2069	2062	2025	25
Pesach Yeshua died	April 6, 30 AD	1471938	8	77770	77746	77737	77730	77693	75693	75668
Shavuot Abodah Zara 8b, Gen. 49:9-12	May 25, 30 AD	1471987	9	77777	77753	77744	77737	77700	75700	75675	7
Temple destroyed 1K9:1-9	Aug. 2, 70 AD	1486666	10	79874	79850	79841	79834	79797	77797	77772	2104	2097
People Sold to Egypt	Sept. 6, 70 AD	1486702	11	79879	79855	79846	79839	79802	77802	77777	2109	2102	5
10 Germans hung	Oct. 18, 1946	2171938	12	177770	177746	177737	177730	177693	175693	175668	100000	99993	97896	97891
Declaration of Independence	May. 14, 1948	2172512	13	177852	177828	177819	177812	177775	175775	175750	100082	100075	97978	97973	82
			ID #	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12

Faulstich uses several statistical measures to show his result above is beyond Chance.

PERCENTAGE OF 7's

One measure Faulstich uses is to count the digits in the collection of week numbers above, and look at their frequencies. There are 347 digits all together, so one would expect around 35 entries for each digit (10% of the average); that is, around 35 3's, around 35 8's, and so on. BUT, Faulstich has found that THIS matrix of dates has an astounding 121 7's, or almost 35%.

COUNT N = 347

Digit	Count	Percentage
0	40	11.5%
1	26	7.5%
2	28	8.1%
3	20	5.8%
4	15	4.3%
5	23	6.6%
6	16	4.6%
7	121	34.9%
8	23	6.6%
9	26	10.1%

Faulstich claims this clearly improbable result proves his hidden message was intentionally placed there by G-d. One would NOT expect almost 35% 7's by chance. But of course, this is not a chance experiment. The Dates used by Faulstich have been carefully derived and selected so as to PRODUCE the pattern of 7's, whether consciously or not.

PAIRS, TRIPLES, QUADRUPLETS, ETC.

According to Faulstich, the matrix is significant because of pairs, triples, quadruples, or quintuples of any number (not just 7's). He says of his collection of weeks:

Digits are less likely to appear in pairs, triples, quadruples, or
quintuples.
The following pairs, triples, quadruples, or quintuples appear with
probabilities

1 pair of 3's @ 1/100 = 10^-2
2 pairs of 4's @ 1/100 = 10^-4
1 pair of 6's @ 1/100 = 10^-2
16 pairs of 7's @ 1/100 = 10^-32
3 triples of 0's @ 1/1000 = 10^-9
1 triple of 6's @ 1/1000 = 10^-3
9 triples of 7's @ 1/1000 = 10^-27
8 quadruples of 7's @ 1/10,000 = 10^-32
1 quadruple of 9's @ 1/10,000 = 10^-4
1 quintuple of 0's @ 1/100,000 = 10^-5
2 quintuples of 7's @ 1/100,000 = 10^-10

Total probability = 10^-130

This is a VERY small number!

CHI² CALCULATION.

Here is Faulstich's Chi-square calculation for the Chronology of Israel, for the Matrix of Weeks.

N=13, ei = 347/10 = 34.7;

Digit	Oi (observed)	zi = |oi-ei|
n0	40	5.3
n1	26	8.7
n2	28	6.7
n3	20	14.7
n4	15	19.7
n5	23	11.7
n6	16	18.7
n7	121	86.3
n8	23	11.7
n9	26	0.3

The sum of the zi^2 is 8824.1, and so u = sum(zi^2)/ei = 8824.1/34.7 = 254.3;

Faulstich says the Probability for the matrix is thus P = exp(-u/2)/gamma, where gamma = [(2*pi*240)^9 p1*p2*...p0]^(1/2).

This value for gamma comes out as 1.055x10¹⁰.

Thus, P = exp(-u/2)/gamma = exp(-254.3)/1.055x10¹⁰ = 5.713 x 10^-66 .

This is, again, a VERY SMALL NUMBER.

But do these tiny probabilities prove the Bible contains a coded message from G-d?

Eugene Faulstich issued this challenge to Dave Thomas and NMSR:

"NOW IT IS UP TO YOU TO DUPLICATE OUR MATRIX OF 7'S

USING SOME OTHER NATIONAL HISTORICAL RECORD."

And that is exactly what I did.

Here are the results.

THOMAS'S TABLE OF SABBATH PATTERNS (U.S.A)

EVENT	DAY	ADAMIC	ID	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
New Madrid earthquake #1 (Mag 7.5)	Dec. 16,1811	2122689	1
New Madrid earthquake #2 (Mag 7.3)	Jan. 23, 1812	2122727	2	5
New Madrid earthquake #3 (Mag 7.8)	Feb. 7, 1812	2122742	3	8	2
US declares War on Britain	Jun. 18, 1812	2122874	4	26	21	19
British Capture Detroit	Aug. 16, 1812	2122933	5	35	29	27	8
Battle of Lake Erie (Commodore Perry)	Sept. 9, 1813	2123323	6	91	85	83	64	56
Nazi War Criminals hung at Nuremberg	Oct. 16, 1946	2171936	7	7035	7030	7028	7009	7000	6945
Gary Powers, U-2 shot down	May 1, 1960	2176882	8	7742	7736	7734	7715	7707	7651	707
US Severs Ties to Castro's Cuba	Jan. 3, 1961	2177129	9	7777	7772	7770	7751	7742	7687	742	35
1st Manned Space Flight (Gargarin)	Apr. 12, 1961	2177228	10	7791	7786	7784	7765	7756	7701	756	49	14
Bay of Pigs	Apr. 17, 1961	2177233	11	7792	7787	7784	7766	7757	7701	757	50	15	1
1st US Manned Space (Shepard)	May 5, 1961	2177251	12	7795	7789	7787	7768	7760	7704	759	53	17	3	3
Meredith, 1st Black at U. of Mississippi	Oct. 1, 1962	2177765	13	7868	7863	7860	7842	7833	7777	833	126	91	77	76	73
		*Adamic = Julian Day - 260174	ID #	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12

PERCENTAGE OF 7's

COUNT N = 240

Digit	Count	Percentage
0	18	7.5%
1	16	6.3%
2	13	5.4%
3	16	6.7%
4	12	5.0%
5	20	8.3%
6	20	8.3%
7	94	39.2%
8	20	8.3%
9	12	5.0%

Of key interest is that the "mundane" USA chronology has produced a STUNNING 39% of 7's - BETTER THAN FAULSTICH'S CHRONOLOGY OF ISRAEL!

PAIRS, TRIPLES, QUADRUPLETS, ETC.

Finally, let's look at pairs, triplets, and etc. Following Faulstich's development, I have:

2 pair 0's: 0.01^2 = 10^-4
2 pair 3's: 0.01^2 = 10^-4
2 pair 6's: 0.01^2 = 10^-4
25 pair 7's: 0.01^25 = 10^-50
1 pair 8's: 0.01^1 = 10^-2
1 triple 0's: 0.001^1 = 10^-3
6 triple 7's: 0.001^6 = 10^-18
2 quadruple 7's: 0.0001^2 = 10^-8

TOTAL PROBABILITY: 10^-93.

This isn't as small as Faulstich's (10^-130), but 10^-93 is SO SMALL that the conclusion is the same.

CHI² CALCULATION.

Here is the Chi-square calculation for the Chronology of the USA.

N=13, ei = 240/10 = 24.

Digit	Oi (observed)	zi = |oi-ei|
n0	18	6
n1	15	9
n2	13	11
n3	16	8
n4	12	12
n5	20	4
n6	20	4
n7	94	70
n8	20	4
n9	12	12

My sum of the zi^2 is 5538, and so u = 5538/ei = 5538/24 = 230.75;

My Probability for the matrix is thus P = exp(-u/2)/gamma, where gamma = [(2*pi*240)^9 p1*p2*...p0]^(1/2)

My gamma comes out as 2.008x10⁹.

Thus, P = exp(-u/2)/gamma = exp(-230.75)/2.008x10⁹ = 3.8951 x 10^-60 .

This is a little larger than Faulstich's, but a result of 10^-60 is REALLY SMALL; why the chances of winning our Powerball lottery with just one ticket are a whopping 1.25*10^-8 !!!!

That is, I have better than 10⁵¹ times chance to win the lottery with $1 than I do to get such a matrix by picking random dates!

My conclusion: Like the Bible Code, Sabbath Patterns are a way to misuse science to support an insecure Faith. The unlikely patterns that Faulstich claims prove the identity of G-d can be found in mundane chronologies BESIDES the Bible.

Of special interest is the fact that Faulstich and I had one date in common - the hanging of ten Nazi war criminals after the Nuremberg trial. But Faulstich got the date wrong - he says it was October 18th, 1946, when in fact it was October 16th of that year. This destroys one of Faulstich's special 700,000-day coincidences on his website.

I have challenged Eugene Faulstich to show compelling 7's patterns for a LARGE matrix. I can get 28% 7's on a 23-date mundane matrix without even trying very hard. But, Faulstich has not responded to say he has results for anything larger than 13 dates. Maybe he's still working on it!

08-04-2000 UPDATE: I have found an error in Dr. Curt Wagner's statistics calculations. They turn out to be a BILLION BILLION TIMES TOO SMALL,as he neglected to include the "binomial coefficients" in his binomial probability distribution. I have asked Dr. Wagner to respond to this query, but he seems to have vanished, along with Gene Faulstich. Read the bottom of the letter exchange page for the latest details!

08-17-2000 UPDATE: Dr. Wagner has been kind enough to reply to my queries. He recognized the error I mentioned above, and had already corrected it on some of the Patterns pages. See the letters page for the latest exchanges, including the ones in which Gene Faulstich reverts to name-calling and insults as he bails out of the discussion.

I have sent Faulstich and Wagner the details on my BIG USA matrix of dates. Here are the details in brief.

Dave Thomas's matrix of 27 mundane USA dates:

EVENTS (BOLD/BIG = in my original matrix of 13)

Date #1: Pilgrims Land
Date #2: Madrid Earthquake #1
Date #3: Madrid Earthquake #2
Date #4: Madrid Earthquake #3
Date #5: 1812 war declared
Date #6: Fall of Detroit
Date #7: Lake Erie battle
Date #8: White House Burns
Date #9: Battle of Lake Champlain
Date #10: Ft. McHenry; star-spangled banner
Date #11: Treaty of Ghent, War of 1812 ends
Date #12: FLA purchase
Date #13: Erie Canal Opens
Date #14: Nuremberg hangings
Date #15: NATO formed
Date #16: Truman orders US to Korea
Date #17: 1st H-bomb at Eniwetok Atoll
Date #18: Rosa Parks Rides in Front of Segregated Bus
Date #19: Powers U2
Date #20: Cuba ties broken
Date #21: Yuri Gargarin
Date #22: Bay of Pigs
Date #23: Alan Shepard
Date #24: James Meredith goes to college
Date #25: Medgar Evers assassinated
Date #26: Martin Luther King "I have a dream" speech
Date #27: JFK assassinated

Here are the calendar dates, Julian Dates, and Adamic Dates for the events:

Calday Julian Adamic

12.21.1620 2313108 2052934 Date #1
12.16.1811 2382863 2122689 Date #2
01.23.1812 2382901 2122727 Date #3
02.07.1812 2382916 2122742 Date #4
06.18.1812 2383048 2122874 Date #5
08.16.1812 2383107 2122933 Date #6
09.10.1813 2383497 2123323 Date #7
08.24.1814 2383845 2123671 Date #8
09.11.1814 2383863 2123689 Date #9
09.13.1814 2383865 2123691 Date #10
12.24.1814 2383967 2123793 Date #11
02.22.1819 2385488 2125314 Date #12
10.26.1825 2387926 2127752 Date #13
10.16.1946 2432110 2171936 Date #14
04.04.1949 2433011 2172837 Date #15
06.27.1950 2433460 2173286 Date #16
10.31.1952 2434317 2174143 Date #17
12.01.1955 2435443 2175269 Date #18
05.01.1960 2437056 2176882 Date #19
01.03.1961 2437303 2177129 Date #20
04.12.1961 2437402 2177228 Date #21
04.17.1961 2437407 2177233 Date #22
05.05.1961 2437425 2177251 Date #23
10.01.1962 2437939 2177765 Date #24
06.12.1963 2438193 2178019 Date #25
08.28.1963 2438270 2178096 Date #26
11.22.1963 2438356 2178182 Date #27

The new 217-date Patterns Matrix, not shown here, has 24.98% 7's, better than Faulstich's mere 24-date matrix (at 23.66%)!

And where Faulstich's 24-date-matrix gets only 175 of 276 entries with one or more 7's, with probability 2.88E-14, my 27-entry matrix gets 215 of 351 possible entries with one or more 7's, with probability 8.50E-15, SMALLER EVEN THAN ISRAEL'S.

But these numbers are based on Faulstich's arbitrary choice of 199999 as the "biggest possible difference in weeks." If one uses the REAL maximum difference, which is 180276 for Faulstich's Israel 24-date matrix, the probability of 175 of 276 entries with one or more 7's actually increases, to 1.65E-13.

When I put MY maximum difference, 17893, into my binomial calculation, I find that the probability of my 215 of 351 entries with one or more 7's PLUMMETS, to 4.14E-24.

If you use real maximum differences, and not arbitrary numbers like 199,999, then my one-or-more-7's statistics are more than a BILLION TIMES SMALLER THAN FAULSTICH'S.

To read the complete Faulstich/Thomas letter exchange, click HERE .

Faulstich returns (briefly). Read the Feb. 2001 letter exchange HERE .

Get the Secret Scoop on how Dave Thomas found Sabbath Patterns in U.S. History!

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