presents a discussion on...
Sacred Sabbaths of Israel, Proof of the Past, Key to the Future???
Dave Thomas, NMSR President, has been involved in a most interesting email exchange with Eugene Faulstich regarding his proof of the Truth of the Bible, as revealed by patterns in the numbers of weeks between key historical events.
To read the complete Faulstich/Thomas letter exchange, click HERE .
Faulstich returns (briefly). Read the Feb. 2001 letter exchange HERE .
Get the Secret Scoop on how Dave Thomas found Sabbath Patterns in U.S. History!
DISCUSSION
by Dave Thomas : nmsrdaveATswcp.com (Help fight SPAM! Please replace the AT with an @ )
In brief, Faulstich claims to have calculated exact astronomicalbased dates for 13 key Biblical events. When he calculates the differences in weeks between all 13 dates (13 things 2 at a time = 78 pairs), and examines the digits in his collection of 78 numbers, he finds a whopping 35% are 7's (one would expect 10% for random distributions).
Readers can study the extensive claims made by Faulstich and his colleagues at
http://www.ncn.net/~chri and http://www.mashiach6000.org.
Faulstich claims that he and his colleagues have achieved "A new scientific breakthrough in religious studies," and that his group's work "Shows that the chronology in the Bible is scientifically provable through the exact science of astrophysics. This has the potential to 'prove' that Gd exists, and that the One Gd of the universe is the One Gd of the Bible."
You'll find many hardtoread "Mileage Charts" (matrices of the differences in weeks between key dates) on Faulstich's web pages. Here is a simplified, easytoread chart that shows his basic "7's Matrix." This is the basis of Faustich's claim that he has at last Proved the Existence and Identity of Gd.
Here's how to read the table. First, an example; consider dates #7 (Jan. 22 1421 BC, Adamic Day # 942263) and #11 (Sept. 6, 70 AD, Adamic day#1486702). The number of days between these two dates is 1486702  942263 = 544439; dividing this by 7, we obtain the number of weeks, 77777. Consulting the table's 4th column (ID#), find row #11; go across till the bottom row reads #7; their intersection is the difference in weeks (77,777).
EVENT 
DAY 
ADAMIC 
ID 
1 
2 
3 
4 
5 
6 
7 
8 
9 
10 
11 
12 
Burning Bush Ex. 3:14:17 
Oct. 9, 1462 BC 
927548 
1 

Exodus Passover Ex 12:128 
Mar. 26, 1461 BC 
927717 
2 
24 

Ten Commandments Ex 1924 
May 28, 1461 BC 
927779 
3 
33 
9 

Golden Calf Ex. 32 
July 16, 1461 BC 
927828 
4 
40 
16 
7 

Tabernacle Dedication Ex. 40Lev. 8FF 
Apr. 1, 1461 BC 
928087 
5 
77 
53 
44 
37 

Aaron died Nu. 33:38 
July 29, 1422 BC 
942087 
6 
2077 
2053 
2044 
2037 
2000 

Law read DT. 1:15:1 
Jan. 22, 1421 BC 
942263 
7 
2102 
2078 
2069 
2062 
2025 
25 

Pesach Yeshua died 
April 6, 30 AD 
1471938 
8 
77770 
77746 
77737 
77730 
77693 
75693 
75668 

Shavuot Abodah Zara 8b, Gen. 49:912 
May 25, 30 AD 
1471987 
9 
77777 
77753 
77744 
77737 
77700 
75700 
75675 
7 

Temple destroyed 1K9:19 
Aug. 2, 70 AD 
1486666 
10 
79874 
79850 
79841 
79834 
79797 
77797 
77772 
2104 
2097 

People Sold to Egypt 
Sept. 6, 70 AD 
1486702 
11 
79879 
79855 
79846 
79839 
79802 
77802 
77777 
2109 
2102 
5 

10 Germans hung 
Oct. 18, 1946 
2171938 
12 
177770 
177746 
177737 
177730 
177693 
175693 
175668 
100000 
99993 
97896 
97891 

Declaration of Independence 
May. 14, 1948 
2172512 
13 
177852 
177828 
177819 
177812 
177775 
175775 
175750 
100082 
100075 
97978 
97973 
82 
ID # 
1 
2 
3 
4 
5 
6 
7 
8 
9 
10 
11 
12 
Faulstich uses several statistical measures to show his result above is beyond Chance.
PERCENTAGE OF 7's
One measure Faulstich uses is to count the digits in the collection of week numbers above, and look at their frequencies. There are 347 digits all together, so one would expect around 35 entries for each digit (10% of the average); that is, around 35 3's, around 35 8's, and so on. BUT, Faulstich has found that THIS matrix of dates has an astounding 121 7's, or almost 35%.
COUNT N = 347
Digit 
Count 
Percentage 
0 
40 
11.5% 
1 
26 
7.5% 
2 
28 
8.1% 
3 
20 
5.8% 
4 
15 
4.3% 
5 
23 
6.6% 
6 
16 
4.6% 
7 
121 
34.9% 
8 
23 
6.6% 
9 
26 
10.1% 
Faulstich claims this clearly improbable result proves his hidden message was intentionally placed there by Gd. One would NOT expect almost 35% 7's by chance. But of course, this is not a chance experiment. The Dates used by Faulstich have been carefully derived and selected so as to PRODUCE the pattern of 7's, whether consciously or not.
PAIRS, TRIPLES, QUADRUPLETS, ETC.
According to Faulstich, the matrix is significant because of pairs, triples, quadruples, or quintuples of any number (not just 7's). He says of his collection of weeks:
Digits are
less likely to appear in pairs, triples, quadruples, or
quintuples.
The following pairs, triples, quadruples, or quintuples appear
with
probabilities
1 pair of 3's @ 1/100 = 10^{2}
2 pairs of 4's @ 1/100 = 10^{4}
1 pair of 6's @ 1/100 = 10^{2}
16 pairs of 7's @ 1/100 = 10^{32}
3 triples of 0's @ 1/1000 = 10^{9}
1 triple of 6's @ 1/1000 = 10^{3}
9 triples of 7's @ 1/1000 = 10^{27}
8 quadruples of 7's @ 1/10,000 = 10^{32}
1 quadruple of 9's @ 1/10,000 = 10^{4}
1 quintuple of 0's @ 1/100,000 = 10^{5}
2 quintuples of 7's @ 1/100,000 = 10^{10}
Total probability = 10^{130}
This is a VERY small number!
CHI^{2} CALCULATION.
Here is Faulstich's Chisquare calculation for the Chronology of Israel, for the Matrix of Weeks.
N=13, ei = 347/10 = 34.7;
Digit 
Oi (observed) 
zi = oiei 
n0 
40 
5.3 
n1 
26 
8.7 
n2 
28 
6.7 
n3 
20 
14.7 
n4 
15 
19.7 
n5 
23 
11.7 
n6 
16 
18.7 
n7 
121 
86.3 
n8 
23 
11.7 
n9 
26 
0.3 
The sum of the zi^2 is 8824.1, and so u = sum(zi^2)/ei = 8824.1/34.7 = 254.3;
Faulstich says the Probability for the matrix is thus P = exp(u/2)/gamma, where gamma = [(2*pi*240)^9 p1*p2*...p0]^(1/2).
This value for gamma comes out as 1.055x10^{10}.
Thus, P = exp(u/2)/gamma = exp(254.3)/1.055x10^{10} = 5.713 x 10^{66} .
This is, again, a VERY SMALL NUMBER.
But do these tiny probabilities prove the Bible contains a coded message from Gd?
Eugene Faulstich issued this challenge to Dave Thomas and NMSR:
"NOW IT IS UP TO YOU TO DUPLICATE OUR MATRIX OF 7'S
USING SOME OTHER NATIONAL HISTORICAL RECORD."
And that is exactly what I did.
Here are the results.
THOMAS'S TABLE OF SABBATH PATTERNS (U.S.A)
EVENT 
DAY 
ADAMIC 
ID 
1 
2 
3 
4 
5 
6 
7 
8 
9 
10 
11 
12 
New Madrid earthquake #1 (Mag 7.5) 
Dec. 16,1811 
2122689 
1 

New Madrid earthquake #2 (Mag 7.3) 
Jan. 23, 1812 
2122727 
2 
5 

New Madrid earthquake #3 (Mag 7.8) 
Feb. 7, 1812 
2122742 
3 
8 
2 

US declares War on Britain 
Jun. 18, 1812 
2122874 
4 
26 
21 
19 

British Capture Detroit 
Aug. 16, 1812 
2122933 
5 
35 
29 
27 
8 

Battle of Lake Erie (Commodore Perry) 
Sept. 9, 1813 
2123323 
6 
91 
85 
83 
64 
56 

Nazi War Criminals hung at Nuremberg 
Oct. 16, 1946 
2171936 
7 
7035 
7030 
7028 
7009 
7000 
6945 

Gary Powers, U2 shot down 
May 1, 1960 
2176882 
8 
7742 
7736 
7734 
7715 
7707 
7651 
707 

US Severs Ties to Castro's Cuba 
Jan. 3, 1961 
2177129 
9 
7777 
7772 
7770 
7751 
7742 
7687 
742 
35 

1st Manned Space Flight (Gargarin) 
Apr. 12, 1961 
2177228 
10 
7791 
7786 
7784 
7765 
7756 
7701 
756 
49 
14 

Bay of Pigs 
Apr. 17, 1961 
2177233 
11 
7792 
7787 
7784 
7766 
7757 
7701 
757 
50 
15 
1 

1st US Manned Space (Shepard) 
May 5, 1961 
2177251 
12 
7795 
7789 
7787 
7768 
7760 
7704 
759 
53 
17 
3 
3 

Meredith, 1st Black at U. of Mississippi 
Oct. 1, 1962 
2177765 
13 
7868 
7863 
7860 
7842 
7833 
7777 
833 
126 
91 
77 
76 
73 
*Adamic = Julian Day  260174 
ID # 
1 
2 
3 
4 
5 
6 
7 
8 
9 
10 
11 
12 
PERCENTAGE OF 7's
COUNT N = 240
Digit 
Count 
Percentage 
0 
18 
7.5% 
1 
16 
6.3% 
2 
13 
5.4% 
3 
16 
6.7% 
4 
12 
5.0% 
5 
20 
8.3% 
6 
20 
8.3% 
7 
94 
39.2% 
8 
20 
8.3% 
9 
12 
5.0% 
Of key interest is that the "mundane" USA chronology has produced a STUNNING 39% of 7's  BETTER THAN FAULSTICH'S CHRONOLOGY OF ISRAEL!
PAIRS, TRIPLES, QUADRUPLETS, ETC.
Finally, let's look at pairs, triplets, and etc. Following Faulstich's development, I have:
2 pair 0's: 0.01^2 =
10^{4}
2 pair 3's: 0.01^2 =
10^{4}
2 pair 6's: 0.01^2 =
10^{4}
25 pair 7's: 0.01^25 =
10^{50}
1 pair 8's: 0.01^1 =
10^{2}
1 triple 0's: 0.001^1 =
10^{3}
6 triple 7's: 0.001^6 =
10^{18}
2 quadruple 7's: 0.0001^2 =
10^{8}
TOTAL PROBABILITY: 10^{93}.
This isn't as small as Faulstich's (10^{130}), but 10^{93} is SO SMALL that the conclusion is the same.
CHI^{2} CALCULATION.
Here is the Chisquare calculation for the Chronology of the USA.
N=13, ei = 240/10 = 24.
Digit 
Oi (observed) 
zi = oiei 
n0 
18 
6 
n1 
15 
9 
n2 
13 
11 
n3 
16 
8 
n4 
12 
12 
n5 
20 
4 
n6 
20 
4 
n7 
94 
70 
n8 
20 
4 
n9 
12 
12 
My sum of the zi^2 is 5538, and so u = 5538/ei = 5538/24 = 230.75;
My Probability for the matrix is thus P = exp(u/2)/gamma, where gamma = [(2*pi*240)^9 p1*p2*...p0]^(1/2)
My gamma comes out as 2.008x10^{9}.
Thus, P = exp(u/2)/gamma = exp(230.75)/2.008x10^{9} = 3.8951 x 10^{60} .
This is a little larger than Faulstich's, but a result of 10^{60} is REALLY SMALL; why the chances of winning our Powerball lottery with just one ticket are a whopping 1.25*10^{8} !!!!
That is, I have better than 10^{51} times chance to win the lottery with $1 than I do to get such a matrix by picking random dates!
My conclusion: Like the Bible Code, Sabbath Patterns are a way to misuse science to support an insecure Faith. The unlikely patterns that Faulstich claims prove the identity of Gd can be found in mundane chronologies BESIDES the Bible.
Of special interest is the fact that Faulstich and I had one date in common  the hanging of ten Nazi war criminals after the Nuremberg trial. But Faulstich got the date wrong  he says it was October 18th, 1946, when in fact it was October 16th of that year. This destroys one of Faulstich's special 700,000day coincidences on his website.
I have challenged Eugene Faulstich to show compelling 7's patterns for a LARGE matrix. I can get 28% 7's on a 23date mundane matrix without even trying very hard. But, Faulstich has not responded to say he has results for anything larger than 13 dates. Maybe he's still working on it!
08042000 UPDATE: I have found an error in Dr. Curt Wagner's statistics calculations. They turn out to be a BILLION BILLION TIMES TOO SMALL,as he neglected to include the "binomial coefficients" in his binomial probability distribution. I have asked Dr. Wagner to respond to this query, but he seems to have vanished, along with Gene Faulstich. Read the bottom of the letter exchange page for the latest details!
08172000 UPDATE: Dr. Wagner has been kind enough to reply to my queries. He recognized the error I mentioned above, and had already corrected it on some of the Patterns pages. See the letters page for the latest exchanges, including the ones in which Gene Faulstich reverts to namecalling and insults as he bails out of the discussion.
I have sent Faulstich and Wagner the details on my BIG USA matrix of dates. Here are the details in brief.
Dave Thomas's matrix of 27 mundane USA dates:
EVENTS (BOLD/BIG = in my original matrix of 13)
Date #1:
Pilgrims Land
Date #2: Madrid
Earthquake #1
Date #3:
Madrid Earthquake #2
Date #4:
Madrid Earthquake #3
Date #5:
1812 war declared
Date #6:
Fall of Detroit
Date #7:
Lake Erie battle
Date
#8: White House Burns
Date #9:
Battle of Lake Champlain
Date #10:
Ft. McHenry; starspangled banner
Date #11:
Treaty of Ghent, War of 1812 ends
Date #12:
FLA purchase
Date #13:
Erie Canal Opens
Date #14:
Nuremberg hangings
Date
#15: NATO formed
Date #16:
Truman orders US to Korea
Date #17:
1st Hbomb at Eniwetok Atoll
Date #18:
Rosa Parks Rides in Front of Segregated
Bus
Date #19: Powers
U2
Date #20:
Cuba ties broken
Date #21:
Yuri Gargarin
Date #22:
Bay of Pigs
Date #23:
Alan Shepard
Date #24:
James Meredith goes to college
Date
#25: Medgar Evers assassinated
Date #26:
Martin Luther King "I have a dream"
speech
Date #27:
JFK assassinated
Here are the calendar dates, Julian Dates, and Adamic Dates for the events:
Calday Julian Adamic
12.21.1620
2313108 2052934 Date #1
12.16.1811
2382863 2122689 Date #2
01.23.1812
2382901 2122727 Date #3
02.07.1812
2382916 2122742 Date #4
06.18.1812
2383048 2122874 Date #5
08.16.1812
2383107 2122933 Date #6
09.10.1813
2383497 2123323 Date #7
08.24.1814
2383845 2123671 Date #8
09.11.1814
2383863 2123689 Date #9
09.13.1814
2383865 2123691 Date #10
12.24.1814
2383967 2123793 Date #11
02.22.1819
2385488 2125314 Date #12
10.26.1825
2387926 2127752 Date #13
10.16.1946
2432110 2171936 Date #14
04.04.1949
2433011 2172837 Date #15
06.27.1950
2433460 2173286 Date #16
10.31.1952
2434317 2174143 Date #17
12.01.1955
2435443 2175269 Date #18
05.01.1960
2437056 2176882 Date #19
01.03.1961
2437303 2177129 Date #20
04.12.1961
2437402 2177228 Date #21
04.17.1961
2437407 2177233 Date #22
05.05.1961
2437425 2177251 Date #23
10.01.1962
2437939 2177765 Date #24
06.12.1963
2438193 2178019 Date #25
08.28.1963
2438270 2178096 Date #26
11.22.1963
2438356 2178182 Date #27
The new 217date Patterns Matrix, not shown here, has 24.98% 7's, better than Faulstich's mere 24date matrix (at 23.66%)!
And where Faulstich's 24datematrix gets only 175 of 276 entries with one or more 7's, with probability 2.88E14, my 27entry matrix gets 215 of 351 possible entries with one or more 7's, with probability 8.50E15, SMALLER EVEN THAN ISRAEL'S.
But these numbers are based on Faulstich's arbitrary choice of 199999 as the "biggest possible difference in weeks." If one uses the REAL maximum difference, which is 180276 for Faulstich's Israel 24date matrix, the probability of 175 of 276 entries with one or more 7's actually increases, to 1.65E13.
When I put MY maximum difference, 17893, into my binomial calculation, I find that the probability of my 215 of 351 entries with one or more 7's PLUMMETS, to 4.14E24.
If you use real maximum differences, and not arbitrary numbers like 199,999, then my oneormore7's statistics are more than a BILLION TIMES SMALLER THAN FAULSTICH'S.
To read the complete Faulstich/Thomas letter exchange, click HERE .
Faulstich returns (briefly). Read the Feb. 2001 letter exchange HERE .
Get the Secret Scoop on how Dave Thomas found Sabbath Patterns in U.S. History!